Expected fantasy points

What an average player would have scored with the same workload. Built from every carry, target and pass attempt — where the ball was snapped, how far it travelled, and whether it was thrown into the end zone. Talent and luck are stripped out; only opportunity remains. One model prices the opportunities; position only decides which kinds a player collects.

 ·   ·  PPR · passing, rushing and receiving  ·  model fit on

EZ counts throws aimed into the end zone, which are touchdowns whenever they are caught. Inside 10 counts opportunities snapped within ten yards of the goal line. Return scores are not included on either side. Labelled dots are the ten players furthest from their workload, recomputed inside whatever positions are selected.

Quarterbacks are a looser fit than skill players. Held out — fit on 2015–2023 and scored on 2025, which the fit never saw — passers land at r = 0.94 and a mean error of 1.5 points per game, against roughly 0.3 for running backs, receivers and tight ends. A quarterback sitting two points off his expected line is inside the noise in a way the same gap for a receiver is not. Passing touchdowns are scored at 4 points here; at 6 the passers shift up and the skill positions do not move.